L.R. Levin Consulting- Newsletters

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	*Contact us at LLevin@LRLevin.com to request a copy of a newsletter listed bellow or to discus the meaning of current economic conditions on the future of your business.*	.

Newsletter Library, present back to 2008 below
Date	Lead Articles


October	2016	The Newsletter Article, “New Normal Less than 2% GDP Growth; Recession Within 3 Years: Is the Wall Street Journal Right?” discusses two recent Wall Street Journal columns that fail to recognize the true dynamics of the U.S. economy. The Wise Old Owl looks at how to plan for the post-election economy
June	2016	The Newsletter Article, “Was the 2016 ITR Economics' Trends Summit correct when it predicted a recession in approximately 2018 and a depression in approximately 2030?” discusses the 4 key reasons why ITR believes a 2030 depression is inevitable. The Wise Old Owl looks at the economy’s continuing slow growth cycles and the mixed economic data foreshadowing the roller coaster ride over the next 6 to 8 months.
March	2016	The Newsletter Article, “Is Donald Trump Already Helping the Economy?” discusses how the U.S. economy will perform during the remainder of 2016, including the Trump effect. The Wise Old Owl tells why strategically planning for how your sector will perform over the next 6 to 12 months will determine your profitability.
September	2015	The Newsletter Article, “Was Yogi Berra Right?” discusses his wisdom as it applies to the Fed’s recent decision to leave interest rates at 0 and the Fed’s need to push the executive and the legislative branches of government toward a coordinated more effective monetary policy. The Wise Old Owl looks at the economy’s continuing slow growth cycles and the mixed economic data foreshadowing the roller coaster ride over the next 6 to 8 months.
May	2015	The Newsletter Article, “What Does the 0.7% Contraction in First Quarter GDP Tell Us About the Economy?” discusses what the unexpected 0.7% contraction in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2015 means and how that may impact the next 6 to 12 months. The Wise Old Owl tells why the next 12 months can go either way and what your next step should be.
January	2015	The Newsletter Article, “Illusions, Delusions, and Damn Lies!” discusses the U.S. government’s use of misleading statistics in telling the public the economy has turned the corner and that there is nothing to worry about. It goes on to discuss what stage the economy is in today. The Wise Old Owl tells what risk factors may affect your economic segments performance over the next 18 months.
November	2014	The Newsletter Article, “Did You Give Thanks for the Strength of the American Economy?” discusses the U.S. economy’s outperforming the rest of the world through 2015. The Wise Old Owl looks at the seven key areas that your Strategic Plan should include to continue increasing growth and profits during 2015.
October	2014	The Newsletter Article, “Does the Stock Market Know Something We Don’t?” discusses the unusual behavior of the Stock Market over the past two weeks and how the U.S. economy continues to grow. The Wise Old Owl looks at what companies should be doing to differentiate themselves from their competitors in order to continue increasing growth and profits during 2015.
September	2014	The Newsletter Article, “How Will the World Economy Affect the U.S.?” discusses the globalized world economy and what it means for the U.S. based on where the key world players are in their cycle.
July-August	2014	The Newsletter Article, “Should We Worry About the Projected Depression In 2030?” discusses the Institute for Trend Research’s prediction that the U.S. will have a recession in 2018 and a Great Depression in 2030. The Wise Old Owl looks at how the U.S. economy should be viewed over the next 6 to 12 months.
June	2014	The Newsletter Article, “If the Government Wants to Model the U.S. After Europe, How About Germany?” discusses how Germany, since the end of the recession, through pursuing pro-business policies, including producing balanced budgets and reducing its debt to GDP ratio, has created a dynamic growing economy. The Wise Old Owl looks at two of the black clouds on the horizon that could derail the U.S. economy.
May	2014	The Newsletter Article, “Are Low Wages A Drag On the U.S. Economy?” discusses the recent Wall Street Journal story on consensus economists blaming low wages for preventing an economic upturn. The Article explains why this is bad economics leading to poor policy. The Wise Old Owl looks at what the current economic data indicates and what you should do over the next 6 months to grow revenue and profits.
April	2014	The Newsletter Article, “In Retaliation for Sanctions Will Russia Push the U.S. Into Recession?” discusses Russia’s capabilities to affect the U.S. economy if the Ukraine situation continues to deteriorate.
March	2014	The Special Edition Newsletter Article, “How can the American Economy Be restored?” discusses how to restore America’s economy, creating growth, jobs, and confidence in the future. This article uses the vision of John F. Kennedy to explain what any sensible candidate for Congress should espouse. The Wise Old Owl talks about where the American economy is as of the end of March.
February	2014	T he Newsletter Article, “Will the Momentum coming out of 2013 Carry Our Growth Through 2014?” discusses why the current political bickering may keep us out of recession for the next 3 quarters. The Wise Old Owl talks about how to use the current calm to be ready for the coming changes.
January	2014	The Newsletter Article, “Will 2014 Be a Happy New Year?” discusses retiring Fed Chair Bernanke’s prediction, and consensus economists’ belief, that we will have a strong recovery in 2014. The Wise Old Owl section talks about what your business should do to have a strong 2014.
November	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Did the Tornados Delay the Economic Cycle, Asks the Bulls, Bears, and Foxes?” compares the delay of the Chicago Bears’ game due to tornadoes and the current economic conditions, discussing how today's stagnant economic conditions effect the 2014 economic forecast.
October	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen Is Not a Baseball Double Play,” discusses Alan Greenspan’s new book defending his record as Fed Chair and comparing him to his successors, Ben Bernanke and soon to be Chair, Janet Yellen. It also discusses whether Greenspan’s policies were responsible for the Great recession.
September	2013	The Newsletter Article, “As Yogi Berra and Joe Biden Have Said, ‘It’s like Déjà vu all over again!’” discusses the economic impact of not getting a handle on our nation’s annual deficits, total national debt, and out of control spending. By comparing the current deadlock to the May 2011 Newsletter, the Article puts the current government situation in perspective. The Wise Old Owl section discusses getting ready for the anticipated 2014 cycle change.
July/August	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Does the Unemployment Data Suggest the Recovery Is Strengthening Or Are We Just in a Period of Modest Stability?” explains that the total number of unemployed has grown by 600,000 people during the pasted 5 years since the current administration took office and the adjusted rate of unemployment in July 2013 was 12%; The Article goes on to describes what the last 5 years unemployment data means for the economy. The Wise Old Owl section discusses the Affordable Care Act and how it and current economic data are shaping 2014.
June	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Eight Key Economic Drivers That Signal Expansion Through Year End” discusses why each of the 8 key economic drivers point to the “good news” that the U.S. economy will continue to grow thought the rest of 2013. The Wise Old Owl section discusses the steps you should take to be ready for 2014.
May	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Is the U.S. Still the World’s Dominant Economy?” discusses why with the U.S. economy representing approximately 22% of the world’s GDP, the U.S. is still the dominant economic engine in the world, no other single country representing even 12% of the world’s GDP.
April	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Is the Next Recession Still Coming in 2014?” discusses the nation’s top economist’s prediction that the economy will pick up strength during the last half of the year. It also explains the variables that will determine if we have a recession in 2014. Our Wise Old Owl section discusses why the projected 2014 recession looks milder than first predicted and what steps business should take now.
March	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Is China an Economic, Diplomatic, and Military Threat to the U.S.?” explains how China’s aggressive policies have and will affect the U.S., including increasing world pollution and hurting the U.S. economy. Our Wise Old Owl section discusses some of the signs that the U.S. economy is experiencing increasing fragility with high gas prices, increasing long term unemployment and financial bubbles.
February	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Is the U.S. Successfully Transitioning from a War Time Economy to a Peace Time Economy?” explains the uniqueness of transitioning from a war to a peace time economy and discusses the problems we face, including the often repeated government idea that “peace” has created saving that will support its current spending program.
January	2013	The Newsletter Article, “Are You Ready for the 2014 Recession?” discusses whether a recession in 2014 is unavoidable.
December	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Is Santa Leaving a Lump of Coal in the Economy’s Stocking?” discusses the latest economic data and how the current government stalemate will play out over the next 12 months for business.
November	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Have We Already Gone Over The Cliff?” discusses how the so called fiscal and tax cliff are already effecting the way the economy will perform in 2013 and what the government’s actions or inaction over the next month could mean for 2014.
October	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Will QE3 Help The Economy?” discusses Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s recent speech to the Economic Club of Indiana defending pumping $85 billion each month into the economy while not insisting that the government cut spending and reduce taxes rates to fuel growth. Our article puts QE3 in historical perspective discussing the contradictory policies considerations of maintaining employment, controlling inflation, encouraging growth, and maintaining the value of the dollar, all while trying to provide a stable monetary system.
September	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Like The Old Mississippi, The National Debt Just Keeps Rolling Along” discusses how the election noise is drowning out the significance of passing $16 trillion in national debt at a time of poor GDP growth and why the political rhetoric referring to past ways of coping with debt and poor GDP growth don’t apply today. The Newsletter also looks at what business should do over the next 2 months while the economy is frozen with indecision.
July-August	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Can The U.S. Economy Achieve A 5% to 8% GDP Growth Rate?” discusses the good fundamentals forces underpinning the U.S. economy which for the third year in a row have poised the economy for a growth break through. It also explains why absent a fundamental change in government policy, the economy will turn negative in 2013.
June	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Is The Economy Re-Accelerating?” discusses why the media are overly negative about the trend over the next 6 to 12 months. The article explains some of the bright spots in the world economy and why we should see mild growth over the next 12 months. The contrasting picture of 2013 to 2014 is also addressed.
May	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Has The U.S. Economy Shrunk By 15% Since The Start Of The Great Recession?” discusses how the U.S. has dropped from 25% to 19% of the world’s GDP as part of the impact of long term unemployment increasing by more than 264% over the last 3 years. The article explains why the structural damage to the economy has caused so many people to “feel” like we are not in recovery or returning to broad based prosperity.
April	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Do Rising Retail Sales Mean The Economy Is Poised For Strong Growth?” discusses the consensus economists’ view that record retail sales means the economy may be ready for sustained strong growth. It also discusses why the economic statistics may be very misleading. Our second article, “Will This Economic Cycle See A Recession In The Latter Half Of 2013?” discusses our strategic partner, one of the nations leading economic forecaster’s, The Institute For Trend Research’s prediction that the economic cycle will change in the second half of 2013 and extend into 2014. The Newsletter also discusses what you should do to prepare for the coming down turn.
March	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Is Mid-2013 through 2014 Moving Toward A Sea Change In The Economic Cycle?” discusses the four dark clouds on the horizon that could derail the economy by taking too much liquidity from the private sector. It explains why the improving economic data may be masking unanticipated negative changes that could impact by mid-2013. Scheduled taxes hikes, higher inflation, gasoline prices, and long term unemployment all are among the liquidity reducing dark clouds on the horizon.
February	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Will China’s Oil Currency Moves Put The Blocks On The U.S. Economy?” discusses China’s working with India and Russia to help Iran avoid U.S. and European financial and purchase sanctions by providing alternate mechanisms for payment, including gold, and by providing customers for any sales lost to sanctions. It also talks about China’s pushing bifurcated Iranian oil prices with the U.S. and Europe paying more. Our second article, “Will The Fed’s Artificially Reducing Rates Until 2014 Hurt The Economy?” discusses how the Fed’s low interest rate policy will affect us in 2012 and beyond.
January	2012	The Newsletter Article, “Drowning In Debt, Can The United States Learn To Swim” discusses the CBO’s determination that our national deficit is becoming “unsustainable” and how in 10 years the interest on the debt alone could exceed the entire 2011 budget, other than social security and Medicaid, by more than $500 billion.
December	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Is The Economy Poised For Sound Growth In 2012?” discusses the cheerful holiday economic data and whether actual retail sales, manufacturing, and construction data shows sound growth ahead. It also poses the dilemma of 2013. Our second article, “Is The World Economy Growing As We Head Into 2012?” discusses how the major world economies will affect us in 2012. It also talks about several geopolitical problems that could change everything.
November	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Will State Debt Do For The United States What Greece, Italy And Spain Are Doing For The Euro Zone?” discusses the high current level of state debt and how states like California, New York and Illinois continue to run uncontrolled large deficits. It further discusses the catastrophic impact if one or more of these large states where to go bankrupt. Our second article, “Is Delaying The Keystone Oil Pipeline A National And Economic Security Risk?” discusses why delaying the Keystone pipeline hurts our national security and increases the risk that the economy will suffer over the next two years.
October	2011	The Newsletter Article, “The Great Six Billion Bipartisan Stimulus Of 2012” discusses the one piece of bipartisan stimulus both parties can agree upon and why it should add about 6 billion dollars to the economy in 2012. Our second article, “Can Germany Save The Eurozone From A Double Dip Recession?” discusses Germany as the leading manufacturing power in the Eurozone and its dependence on trade with China and the U.S..
September	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Will The Jobs Creation Bill Help The Economy?” discusses the potential economic impact of the key elements of the jobs proposal, including the very negative effect of eliminating collection of social security tax, rather than reforming the tax code and reducing overall rates. Our second article, “Will The Economy Pick Up In 2012?” discusses the conflicting data that economists must evaluate, including why the GDP figures may be misleading, the impact of public perception at this point in the cycle, and this fiscal year’s $123 trillion deficit.
July-August	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Is The World Headed For A Major Structural Dislocation And Another Recession?” discusses the interrelationship of the three major world economies, U.S., Germany and China comprising 37% of the world’s GDP, and are these economies driving the world toward another recession. Our second article, “Did President Kennedy Have The Right Answer To Creating Growth And Recovery?” discusses, in John F. Kennedy’s own words, why he chose major tax reform and across the board reductions in corporate and personal income taxes to create a “V” shaped recovery from a recession situation like we are now facing. It addresses as Kennedy did the three key needs to reduce taxes, reduce spending, and eliminate stifling government regulation permitting our free market economy to return to growth and full employment.
June	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Is The Recovery Headed Toward A Double Dip Recession?” discusses Fed Chair Bernanke’s recent remarks and warns about stagflation risks. It talks about why the economic data supports a continued recovery over the next 6 to 12 months. The article also discusses why housing needs to improve along with consumer spending for unemployment and the economy to materially improve. Our second article, “Is The World Economy Slowing?” discusses the slowing world economy and its potential effect on the U. S.
May	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Is The Economy On Track For Increasing Growth Through 2011?” discusses the economic data supporting a continued acceleration in the recovery over the next 6 to 12 months. The article explains the differing situation of each of the three basic drivers of the economy, manufacturing, housing, and consumer spending. Our second article, “Will The National Debt Tank The Recovery?” discusses who owns our debt, the changing ratios of annual and cumulative debt to GDP, and the meaning of these ratios as our debt continues to grow. The article explains the impact of the Fed’s discontinuing purchasing 85% of our new debt. All of this puts the debt ceiling debate in perspective.
April	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Will Rising Interest Rates Accelerate Inflation?” discusses whether the Fed should follow other Central Banks in raising interest rates now. The article explains why at various stages of the economic cycle raising rates can accelerate inflation and at other stages it can reduce inflation. The article also discusses the importance of timing an end to quantitative easing and increasing interest rates to the long term health of the economy. Our second article, “How Will The State Of The World Economy Effect 2011?” discusses the state of the major economic centers of the world economy and how they will affect our recovery over the next 6 to 12 months.
March	2011	The Newsletter Article, “With All The Uncertainty, Will The Recovery Continue in 2011?” discusses the dichotomy of how the government’s current approach will help in the short run, but hurt the economy in the long run. It also explains the drivers, such as Japan & Libya, that will affect the economy during the remainder of 2011. Our second article, “Will The Libyan Gasoline Price Spike Derail The Recovery?” looks at how rising gas prices will affect the recovery and what the government should do to stabilize fuel pricing. The final article, “Is Unemployment Getting Better?” explains the good and bad aspects of the latest unemployment report.
February	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Are We Heading Toward Another Recession In 2013?” discusses how the government’s short term approach to the recovery is driving liquidity out of the economy at the risk of another recession in 2013-2014 or worse. Our second article, “Will The Rising National Debt Cause A Recession In 2013 or 2014?” looks at one of the key driving forces in this economic cycle and puts today’s $14 trillion dollar national debt and its implications in perspective. The article goes on to explain why, absent a course change, we are headed toward a $22 trillion dollar national debt by 2015 with a possible recession or depression along the way.
January	2011	The Newsletter Article, “Will Inflation Be A Problem Over The Next Six Months?” discusses the growing pressures that could ignite major inflationary trends. The article explains that inflation is not just a U. S. concern. Our second article, “Will Manufacturing Continue To Lead The Recovery In 2011?” discusses both why manufacturing should continue to recover and what risks it faces. Our final article, “Will It Take 5 to 10 years For Unemployment To Improve?” compares the mistakes of 1937 to the current economic situation. It explains what the current data means, and why employment should be the key focus of government policy now.
December	2010	The Newsletter Article, “Is The Conflicting Economic Data Confusing Or Really Consistent?” discusses how in recent weeks there has been a flood of economic data either pointing toward a faltering recovery or continuing strengthening of the recovery. The article explains why the data is really consistent and reflects how the government failed to take the actions necessary to a full recovery given an economy that had such a deep decline. Our second article, “Will The Proposed Tax Cuts Avoid A Recession In 2014” discusses why the currently proposed tax compromise really doesn’t cut taxes and is not enough to convert the slow moderate growth during the first half of 2011 into an economic cycle that could avoid a recession in 2014.
November	2010	Our November 2010 Newsletter Article, “Is Fed Chair Bernanke’s Defense Of Quantitative Easing Believable?” discusses Fed Chair Bernanke’s attempt to justify creating new dollars out of thin air based on China’s behavior in undervaluing the Yuan. The article explains why the Fed’s policy may fail and what reality based economics dictates the Fed’s policy should be. Our second article, discusses why our *8 leading indicators* show moderate growth should continue into the first half of 2011.
October	2010	Our October 2010 Newsletter Article, “Can The Fed Boost The Economy?” discusses the four things that Fed Chair Bernanke said that the Fed could do to boost the economy. The article explains how each of the 4 options he proposed would affect your company’s future. Our second article, “In Case You Didn’t Notice, The Recession Ended In June 2009?” addresses the real meaning of the recessionary slide ending before the stimulus had any impact and what it will take for the economy to have a strong recovery. Our final article, “Is The Real Employment Picture Still Deteriorating?” talks about the negative meaning of last Friday’s Labor Department unemployment report and its long term implications.
September	2010	Our September 2010 Newsletter Article, “Is China Hurting The U.S. Recovery?” discusses the impact China’s subsidizing its export industries and currency manipulation is having on the U.S. recovery. Our second article, “Are The Unemployment Numbers Good News?” addresses the underlying data that paints a disturbing picture not revealed by the gloss put on the overall unemployment percentage by the pundits. Our final article, “Is The Impact Of Government Policy On Banks & Of Tax Increases, Hurting Job Creation And Economic Liquidity? talks about how government policy toward regional banks and increasing taxes is hurting mid-sized and small business sales and ability to obtain needed financing resulting in a slowdown in job creation.
August	2010	Our August 2010 Newsletter Article, “Are We About To Have A Double Dip Recession And Run Away Inflation?” discusses the many current news stories where consensus economists have made contradictory statements about whether we are about to have a double dip recession. It also addresses the contradictory predictions of runaway inflation and destructive deflation. The article explains why the confusion and what are the three approaches the government could take to meet the challenges of the current economic situation and what you can expect over the next 6 months.
July	2010	Our July 2010 Newsletter Article, “Are We Headed Toward Another Great Depression?” discusses the state of the recovery and The Institute For Trend Research startling prediction that we will be in a depression by 2030. Our second major article, “Are Consensus Economists Beginning To Predict Government Policy Will Lead To Lack Of Job Growth & Stagnation?” discusses 5 major government disincentives that will lead to stagnation and stifle job growth, as well as the implications of last month’s private sector job growth being concentrated in the temporary help industry, and the meaning of the substantial unfavorable increase in our trade gap with China.
June	2010	Our June 2010 Newsletter Article, “Will Deflation And Europe’s Debt Crisis Cause Us To Have A Double Dip Recession?” reviews the 7 major threats to our fledgling recovery. Our second major article, “Is China Continuing Its Attack On The U.S. Dollar?” discusses China’s continuing efforts to replace the U.S. dollar as the medium of international trade and how that could undercut the world recovery and hurt our economy.
May	2010	Our May 2010 Newsletter Article, “Will The Recovery Continue To Strengthen, Driven By Manufacturing?” talks about the various forces shaping this “H” shaped recovery and what they mean for you. Our second major Article, “What Is Threatening The Economy?” discusses several key underlying problems that could hit the economy over the next 6 to 12 months.
April	2010	Our Healthcare Special Edition,April 2010 Newsletter discusses the $569 billion in new taxes and other provisions that will affect the economy. The focus is on how this will impact your business in 2010 and beyond. The new law contains many key provisions that will materially impact business from now through 2018. Do you know what they are?
March	2010	Our March 2010 Newsletter Article, “Is 2010 A Year Of Stabilization And Moderate Growth?” talks about what the general economy can expect in terms of growth over the next 6 to 18 months. Our second major Article, “Is Inflation Under Control?” discusses how the federal Reserve and many leading economists have failed to understand the inflationary forces at work in the economy. The third Article, “What Can We Learn From Spain?” compares Spain’s economic experience with the situation our 50 states and Federal government are now facing and discusses how Wall Street fails to realize how lavish entitlement programs and deficit spending will reduce our standard of living and our economy. Finally we review our list of *8 key drivers* to track the economy and discuss what they are telling us about the next 18 months.
February	2010	Our February 2010 Newsletter Article, “Is The Drop In Unemployment More Good News?” discusses the story behind the statistics and what it means for your business over the next 6 to 18 months. Our second major Article, “How Will The Two Trillion Of Tax Increases In The Budget Affect the Economy?” discusses the impact of the currently planned budget tax increases liquidity in the economy, job creation, and consumer purchasing power among other things.
January	2010	Our January 2010 Newsletter Article, “Will The U. S. National Debt Level Affect Our Recovery?” discusses how our rapidly increasing national debt level could derail the recovery. It also talks about how our debt level could take liquidity out of the economy, hurt job creation, and reduce consumer purchasing power among other things.

December	2009	Will the consumer give us a Merry Christmas?
November	2009	Is the economic recovery gaining strength?
October	2009	Why a look back Issue?
September	2009	Good news, the resession is over!
August	2009	Will the Impending Recovery help you business?
July	2009	Will growing unemployment negatively affect when we hit bottom & the recovery?
June	2009	Has the stimulus package stimulated anything but talk?
May	2009	Can we really "read the tea leaves" about the rest of 2009?
April	2009	We may still be at sea, but Is that echo we are hearing possibly the bottom of the downturn?
March	2009	Like the Old Mississippi, the recession "just keeps rolling along"
January	2009	A time for action

November	2008	What has changed for 2009?
September	2008	What can we expect in 2009?

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